Euromonitor predicts tougher 2017-2018

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Political risks in the Eurozone a drag for global economy

Global market research company Euromonitor International released today a new white paper, “Global Economies and Consumers in 2017”, in which it predicts 2017 will be the launchpad for a global slowdown next year.

Among the major issues are political risks in the Eurozone with the rise of the Far Right, ongoing and persistent concerns about Brexit and over-indebted Chinese corporate sector will pose increasing pressure on the Chinese economy.

While this is not news, it confirms all the other predictions made by other agencies so far, for this year and next year.

The analysts predict 2017 will be marked by slowing growth in consumer expenditure in developed markets.

With many of these countries struggling to raise productivity, weighed down by debt and ageing population, stagnation represents a threat.

The Eurozone will continue to see anaemic growth, with a slowdown in all major economies next year.

Sarah Boumphrey, global lead of economies and consumers at Euromonitor International said: “In emerging and developing markets, real consumer spending growth is expected to strengthen in 2017, driven by markets such as China, India and the ASEAN. Brazil and Russia are expected to return to growth next year, albeit weak growth. India should continue to perform well, with the strongest growth in all major markets, although downside risks stem from demonetisation.”

Among the trends to watch in 2017:

The US elections result unfolds uncertainty with global spillovers.

The main obstacles include increases in trade tariffs and immigration restrictions, which could cause a downturn in the US economy, with GDP growth falling to 0.9 percent in 2017.

Political risks threaten to obstruct economic growth in Europe. Right-wing parties gain ground across Europe, adding up to significant political uncertainty, while continued concern surrounding Brexit is estimated to lower UK demand and add to the vulnerability of European economies.

The over-indebted Chinese corporate sector will pose increasing pressure on the Chinese economy. High credit growth is anticipated to carry on in China. Bad loans being a particular cause for concern, add to a high probability of a banking crisis by 2020.

With the global economy entering a period of political volatility, Euromonitor analysts explore the economic landscape in 2017, taking in top trends within Business Dynamics, Cities, Economy, Finance and Trade, Industrial, Natural Resources, Digital Consumer, Households, Income and Expenditure and Population.